The REAL argument for Environmental Responsibility

Without oil and particularly coal, the industrial revolution may not have been possible. Quite a lot of our current technological development has oil, natural gas and coal to thank for it. It has a moderately high energy density, which means it produces a lot of energy for a given mass and volume of fuel. We have a massive infrastructure who's only purpose is manufacturing and transporting oil, natural gas, gasoline and coal.

Yet even when the industrial revolution was just getting started, we knew about the terrible flaw in fossil fuels. As fantastic as they were, we knew that the supply was not infinite and that we couldn't make any more. At first, that wasn't a problem. We could use it as fast as we could get it out of the ground and there was always more. As finite as our fuel supply was, the limit was incredibly high.... or so it seemed.

Six billion people inhabit the world now. When the industrial revolution started there was just over a billion and a half. However, we're not just using fossil fuels 4 times as fast today. The rate of oil consumption has doubled every ten years from 1900 until 1970, and since 1962, the rate of discovery of new oil has been declining and worldwide production of oil peaked in 1980, yet demand keeps going up. Indonesia was one of the highest producers of oil until 1996, when their production began to decline. Now they rank only 22nd in oil production and in 2003 they went from being an oil exporter to being an oil importer. What they are going through is in the future of every oil producing country in the world, and some countries like Saudi Arabia are already following them. Saudi Arabia recent attempts to increase oil production in their country have not been successful. Some have theorized that they don't increase production because they want to keep oil prices high, but it makes one wonder. If they truly have reached peak oil, they will shortly be tested as they will be forced to raise production to keep prices from spiraling out of control. If they fail, we are not prepared for the crisis that may follow.

Our entire civilization currently depends on oil and coal. There is not even a small portion of the world economy that will not be adversely affected by loss of production or increase in the price of either, and world production has been declining at about 3-6% since 1098. Coal production has already stopped increasing in several countries, including the United States and it is suspected worldwide peak coal production will happen before 2040. Optimistic projections say that there will be a serious shortage of oil by 2040. The Second World War was fought over ideology. The Third may well be fought over oil reserves.

It is a shortage we are not prepared for and it is a shortage we are not trying to prepare for. There has been no serious research done on an alternate to gasoline as a fuel source for transportation use. Fusion power has the potential to satisfy our static energy needs, but researchers claim the first practical power plant is decades away. The United States government spends hundreds of billions every year on keeping the country safe from terrorism and invasion by another country. The government's great contribution to finding alternate sources of energy last year? A tax break. This year? Clean Coal, which is little more than a money-making scheme endorsed by the oil industry.

Of course there are some who claim that there is no practical substitute for oil and coal. They claim that oil is still cheap and so is coal. Why worry about it now?

Because now is when we CAN do something about it, while our economy isn't burdened by the crisis that is going to happen. That is the problem. Oil and coal WILL run out. It's not something that we can fix. The thing that made oil and coal the wonderful fuel sources they are is that they were just sitting in the ground waiting for us to take them out. Even if we could make our own in the quantities we would need, that would increase their costs so much that they would be beyond any practical use anyway.

Oil is already more expensive than it's price reflects. As it is, the oil industry receives a regular subsidy from governments for oil production. If they did not get that subsidy then they say that oil would be too expensive for the market to bear. Of course it is possible that they are making the problem sound worse than it is. After all, they want the money to keep flowing, but any artificial decrease in price means that when demand outstrips supply, the problem will be that much worse.

The bottom line is that we don't have a choice to make. The choice is being made for us. We WILL run out of coal and oil, but long before we use the last drop or place the last lump of coal in a furnace, we will be fighting among ourselves for the dwindling supplies and our economy will be in a shambles. There is nothing we can do that will allow us to continue to use oil and coal. Our only choice is WHEN we find something else to use. Will it be now, when we have all of the luxuries the legacy of the industrial revolution gave us, or will it be later when we have turned on each other and are fighting for our survival and struggling to keep civilization together? The United States is the most powerful country in the developed world. We now face the very real possibility of becoming the most powerful country in the Third World. Whoever solves this problem will be able to keep something close to their current standard of living. Those who don't will have to rely on the goodwill of those who do and if no one does, then we are about to enter a period of our history that will make the Dark Ages seem like a Golden Age by comparison.

You may have noticed I have not said anything about Global Climate Change. That is because when it comes right down to it, if we can't kick our fossil fuel habit when our own survival is at stake, then what possible chance has all the other life on this planet got of being protected? The potential timeline for environmental disaster is within the next hundred years. The timeline for disaster from a shortage of resources is between ten and fifty years. However, the one bright spot in this looming crisis is that if we solve one problem, we end up solving the other by default, so it doesn't really matter if GCC is real or not or if people buy into it. There are plenty of other real, accepted and critical reasons why we need to stop doing what we're doing.

So those of you out there who say the environmental lobby is trying to destroy the economy, wake up. You may not buy into GCC, but that doesn't change the fundamental fact that we cannot sustain our standard of living using oil and coal. At some point in the very near future, they will both be gone, or be priced so far out of reach that it amounts to the same thing. The only question we need to ask ourselves is: Will it be voluntary or will we destroy ourselves trying to hang onto them?